The TechMobility Podcast
Welcome to The TechMobility Podcast, your ultimate source for authentic insights, news, and perspectives at the nexus of mobility and technology. We're all about REAL FACTS, REAL OPINIONS, and REAL TALK! From personal privacy to space hotels, if it moves or moves you, we're discussing it! Our weekly episodes venture beyond the conventional, offering a unique, unfiltered take on the topics that matter. We're not afraid to color outside the lines, and we believe you'll appreciate our bold approach!
The TechMobility Podcast
Tesla's Semi Truck Challenges, Volvo's Hybrid Marvel, Shell Oil's Starship, and VTOL Aspirations
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Can Tesla overcome its production delays to capture a 25% market share in the electric truck sector? As traditional manufacturers like Mack, Peterbilt, Freightliner, and Volvo capitalize on Tesla's setbacks, we dissect the challenges and opportunities in the Class 8 truck market. Explore how longstanding relationships with established manufacturers might impact Tesla's entry, and why fleet operators are flocking to alternatives as the electric truck race heats up.
Volvo's transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. From a brand once solely defined by safety, Volvo now embraces performance and sustainability, as epitomized by the impressive Volvo V60 T8 Hybrid. Experience the thrill of the Polestar engineered model, a station wagon that defies expectations with a powerful hybrid powertrain and cutting-edge technology. Yet, while it's a triumph in many respects, we also address its quirks, like the infotainment system, while celebrating Volvo's innovative spirit.
Witness the future of freight efficiency with Shell's Starship prototype, a revolutionary concept in fleet decarbonization through renewable natural gas. This episode also ventures into the world of VTOL aircraft, where significant investments and infrastructure challenges loom large. Discover the parallels between past innovations and today's urban air mobility aspirations, as we question the feasibility and timeline for widespread adoption amidst regulatory hurdles. With insights into the evolving landscape of transportation, this episode promises a comprehensive look at what's next in mobility.
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Ken Chester :I'm Ken Chester On the docket, my impressions of the incredible Volvo V60 T8 Hybrid, Shell Oil's Starship Big Rig, And are electric air taxis viable transportation? To add your voice to the conversation, be it to ask a question, share an opinion or even suggest a story idea for a future show, call or text the Tech Mobility hotline. That number, as always, 872-222-9793. That's 872-222-9793. Or you can email the show directly. Talk at techmobility. show. We can also be found across social media, our YouTube channel and our two podcasts, the Tech Mobility Podcast and Tech Mobility Topics
Ken Chester :From the TechMobility
Ken Chester :There was a lot of hoopla in the past two years about the launch of the Tesla Semi. Several companies got some pre-orders and Tesla delivered them, pepsico being one of them. Run a lot of miles and a lot of folks have plunked down a lot of money. Problem is they're still waiting. This is from November and it's out of automotive news Headline. Tesla must deliver long overdue semis, then find homes for the tens of thousands more. After years of delay. Tesla says it's finally getting its heavy duty semi truck program closer to production, but for most customers it looks like it will be nearly a decade since their orders were placed before deliveries begin. We're talking about going back to 2017, when they first announced this, and it was a whole bunch of major companies that said, oh, we're going to put in an order and that date for production kept sliding.
Ken Chester :And even when Tesla gets production up and running now expected in 2026, most likely out of Texas it is unlikely to fulfill its ambitious goal for capturing market share in the Class A truck segment, according to an analyst. You know why? Because the traditional Class 8 truck makers have electric trucks of their own in the marketplace. If you're a medium duty truck maker, a heavy duty truck maker, you have developed and fielded. Whether you're Mack and fielded whether you're Mack. Peterbilt, paccar, freightliner they all have electric trucks in the marketplace right now, and that's not even counting a slew of upstarts that we've reported on, like Bollinger, who is laser focused on the medium duty truck market. And they're not alone. There are other medium duty electric trucks like GM's BrightDrop for that. Tesla's concentrating on the heavy duty market. That's class eight, but there are a lot of competitors already there that said you know what? Not only are we going to develop an electric truck, we actually have one Volvo, Volvo truck. They got an electric truck too. Orders and delivering them right now.
Ken Chester :So the question is how long are companies that want to go electric have budgeted to go electric, have made the commitment to go, with Tesla going to wait? Their new facility aims to produce 50,000 Class 8 trucks annually. That is a lot of Class 8s. Challenge is they'll be lucky at full production to build 10,000. Obviously, they've got a big pent-up demand. If the original fleets that placed orders stay put big. If they're, because their needs didn't change their timetable, they've got a timetable. They've got budgets. They've got capital expenditures to make. They've got replacement cycles to consider and if their replacement cycle was based on Tesla's original dates and those dates passed, they've got vehicles they've got to replace. So if they replace them with something else or a competitor's truck, does that mean that they'll still take any of Tesla's trucks when and if they're available? Don't know.
Ken Chester :Tesla thought that they could take a quarter of the market. How big is the class eight market? And this is class eight, diesels and everything 200,000 vehicles a year, of all powertrains. That was 2023. Tesla, in their new plant at full volume, thought they could take 25% of the market. Yeah, not happening, not happening, not happening, the delays alone is going to jack them up. You know how much demand is there.
Ken Chester :Well, let's look at this a little differently. You got to look at this differently. Compared to, like, the Cybertruck, the Cybertruck had delays, but these folks could afford to wait and they were the Tesla faithful. It was more of a hey, I want a Tesla truck, I'll wait for it, as opposed to I'm a fleet owner, I want to go electric.
Ken Chester :I picked Tesla, but they now are out of my cycle of replacement because I was expecting it a year and a half, two years ago and I couldn't wait that long. I had a truck at the end of its life. I needed to replace that truck. I and I couldn't wait that long. I had a truck at the end of its life. I needed to replace that truck. I wanted to go electric. So I either bought a Freightliner, I bought a Peterbilt, I bought a Volvo Electric that they could deliver. Tesla still can't. So the question is, I don't know. They were on a roadshow a few years back. They came through Des Moines. I missed it.
Ken Chester :I'd love to see this thing because PepsiCo, which did have a fleet I think, of 50, and they've been assessing them and running them through the paces and reporting to the industry how they've been doing and at least for them at least what Pepsi is saying is they've done remarkably well. But the question is, will that be enough? Because they're looking at lifecycle, they're looking at expenses, they're looking at timing, they're looking at assets, because these aren't cheap. So if you're going to spend that kind of money, you need to be in a position to, you know, deliver the truck or move on. So let's look at where things are right now.
Ken Chester :If you think people who own pickup trucks are dedicated to their brand, fleet operators of Class 8 trucks are for a lot of different reasons Parts, service, relationship, long time. Their drivers are familiar with the product. A lot of reasons not to change. Let me give you an example Freightliner, their new EV, their new Class 8 EV. Last year, they sold 321 of them. Now, bear in mind, the whole market's at 200,000, so this is dropping a bucket. How many did Tesla sell in the same time period 21. Meanwhile, evs are gaining ground slowly but across all brands in 2023,. They sold 872.
Ken Chester :Bear in mind Tesla's plant once it opens and gets to full production Now. Bear in mind. Even if that plant opened tomorrow, it would probably take a couple of years to get to full production. If you know anything about assembly plants, you don't open at full throttle. It is a ramp up as you work out problems, scalability everybody gets used to working with everything and you get your supply chain in the right cadence. That takes time. 872 electric Class 8 new vehicle registrations across all brands that was in 2023, against a market size of 200,000.
Ken Chester :And Tesla's thinking they're going to come in and tear up all these relationships. I think there are some fleets that will want to evaluate one or two, because everybody's looking at what they call the messy middle in trucking, trying to get from fossil fuels to decarbonization, whatever that looks like for them. But I don't know if Tesla is going to be the answer at that level, not unless something changes, because a large fleet that's a big investment you're asking them to make and a major change which is going to disrupt their operations. Mechanics everything changes. The cost of parts, service, training, getting your drivers used to driving the vehicles. Docks everything changes. I don't know.
Ken Chester :I think it's a little bit optimistic on their part, but it should be interesting as we watch, over the next couple of years, their ability to do this and just how many of these they'll sell. We laughed at them when they came out with the Model 3, didn't think they'd do it, but they did Model Y same thing. We'll see if they they came out with the Model 3. Didn't think they'd do it, but they did Model Y same thing. We'll see if they can do it in the heavy-duty truck market. That will be a major feat. Even laughed at them with the Cybertruck, but they still sold a lot of them. I guess the thing is, don't bet against the man, don't bet against him. But we'll see. I don't think it'll be 50,000, but it may be way more than we think and that will be definitely worth following for sure.
Ken Chester :21 last , T eslas semis versus 372 for Freightliner, against a market of 200,000 units for everybody. EVs are going to be the wave of future for heavy duty trucks. The question is, what does that look like when we get there? And that's a question that only the market and the fleet owners are going to decide.
Ken Chester :The Volvo V60 T8 Hybrid Wow, my impressions are n ext.
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Ken Chester :Social media is the main place to be these days, and we are no exception. I'm Ken Chester of the Tech Mobility Show. If you enjoy my program, then you will also enjoy my weekly Facebook videos, from my latest vehicle reviews to timely commentary of a variety of mobility and technology-related topics. These short features are designed to inform and delight you. Be sure to watch, like and follow us on Facebook. You can find us by typing the Tech Mobility Show in the search bar. Be sure to subscribe to our Facebook page.
Ken Chester :Social media is the place to be these days, and we're no exception. I'm Ken Chester of the Tech Mobility Show. If you enjoy my program, then you will also enjoy my weekly Instagram videos, from the latest vehicle reviews to timely commentary on a variety of mobility and technology-related topics. These short features are designed to inform and delight you.
Ken Chester :For those of you that listen to podcasts, we have just the one for you. Hi, I'm Ken Chester. Tech Mobility Topics is a podcast where I upload topic-specific videos each week. Shorter than a full show, these bite-sized programs are just the thing, particularly if you're interested in a particular topic covered on the weekly radio show From Apple Podcasts to iHeartRadio and many podcast platforms in between. We got you covered.
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Speaker 5:Imagine a couple of Swedish engineers have dinner with a couple of German engineers. The Swedish engineers talk about safety, while the German engineers talk about the joy of driving, and what do you think they'd end up with? Probably the new Volvo 960. Now the only question is who's going to pick up the tab?
Ken Chester :The new 960 from Volvo, the 1990s where this commercial was made, the 960, this was in 1995. Volvo was in the midst of a revolution in product. Up till the early 1990s Volvos were typically known as very stafe, stodgy, boring but dependable own them for years kind of vehicles. Volvo wanted to interject some performance and some fun and some excitement into their vehicles and in the mid-1990s they were making that transition to do just that. Because the 960 was a car, because again back in the 1990s most of the commercials, people were still buying cars, trucks and SUVs and the craze we're in now and not heard of. The biggest thing happening then was the minivan, and that broke loose 10 years before and was still very much a thing, unlike today. It's like minivan. I never want to be in a minivan. I don't want a minivan, but I'll buy an SUV, though, which basically kind of mimics in some in a minivan. I don't want a minivan but I'll buy an SUV though, which basically kind of mimics in some ways a minivan, but I digress. Volvo made changes Then. Volvo is evoluting now in terms of not just going to SUVs but getting very serious about hybrids and EVs. They're all in Sustainability, recycling products, all sorts of things, very much in the Volvo fabric. So how does the Volvo V60 fit in all this? Well, let's talk about it.
Ken Chester :The Volvo V60 is a compact executive station wagon that has been produced by the Swedish automaker since 2010. The vehicle shares a platform with the S60 midsize sedan. The second generation of the V60 was launched in 2018 and is based on the Volvo Scalable Product Architecture platform, better known as the Volvo SPA. The Volvo SPA also supports the automaker's S60, s90, xc60, and XC90 models. The Polestar engineered upgrade of the V60 became available in the United States as an option package in 2021. By 2023, volvo had replaced the conventional gasoline engines available in the V60 line with a mild plug-in hybrid. This is the powertrain that moves the V60 T8 all-wheel drive Polestar engineered wagon.
Ken Chester :My impressions are limited to just that wagon. The Polestar Engineered model. This amazing piece of automotive engineering, is powered by a two liter turbocharged gasoline engine with an electric motor and an 18.8 kilowatt hour battery pack. The combined powertrain generates 455 horsepower and 523 foot pounds of torque. Energy is communicated to all four wheels via an 8-speed Geartronic automatic transmission. Zero to 60 times is 4.4 seconds. Pure electric range is 41 miles. Combined range is 530 miles. Cargo capacity is 60.5 cubic feet.
Ken Chester :And before I go any further, I'm sure by now you're asking why a station wagon? I mean, how many station? How many new station wagons have you seen on the road? Even Volvo has a number of crossover SUVs and it's stable like every other automaker on the planet. How do you even make a business case, not only for a station wagon, but a performance-oriented, mild hybrid plug-in station wagon? To this I got an answer for you. All you got to do is get behind the wheel. Here's what I liked about the vehicle.
Ken Chester :Anytime Volvo associates the Polestar name to one of its vehicles, you can rest assured that performance will take center stage. Much in the same way that BMW has its M models, Mercedes-Benz has its AMG models, Volvo fields a few Polestar-engineered models from its skunkworks from time to time. And when it comes to the Polestar treatment that it gave the V60, where do I start? The V60 T8 all-wheel drive Polestar engineered wagon is low, sleek, aggressive, and when I say fast, I mean fast. But here's the kicker while being impressively fuel efficient. Who says you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Ken Chester :The Volvo wagon is fluid and very responsive to driver inputs. Because of the lower stance of the wagon, the center of gravity is lowered, adding to its excellent handling and control attributes. Inside the passenger cabin, the driver enjoys a good outward view of the road. The real-time detailed map that appears in the dashboard is very convenient and useful. The infotainment screen is large and the Volvo is equipped with fog lights, because you know, I love my fog lights. The seating is comfortable, with the panoramic sunroof adding an airiness to the passenger cabin. And while this Swedish wonder bristles with all kinds of safety and security features, one of which stands out the adaptive cruise control, working with the speed limit sign monitor, also alerts the driver audibly and visually to active speed cameras up ahead, to which I say thank you, volvo, because if you're driving this thing, you're probably going to be up above the speed limit. It's kind of good to know if there's something up there you need to slow down for, so I was very grateful about that.
Ken Chester :Here's what I didn't like about the vehicle. Surprisingly, the adaptive cruise control did not maintain the selected speed and the cruise control increments were five miles an hour instead of one. The infotainment system is a bit fussy about station selection, favorites versus manual tuning, and I can't believe this in 2025, there's no replay capabilities. Sometimes I want to hear that song again and I can't replay it in this system. Boo, while I love the detail map, believe it or not, it lacked a compass direction specification, you know, like north, south, east, west, northeast, southwest. That'd be nice. And here's something the speed limit sign notification did not always update timely or correctly to the speed limit changes in the road. I would pass signs and it would read them wrong. That surprised me.
Ken Chester :There are no vented seats or driving modes. And okay, driving modes. I can kind of go, because if you're going for performance, do you really need all this stuff? Because you ain't taking this one off road? That's not happening. So, okay, I'll give them that.
Ken Chester :So here's the bottom line. Trust me when I tell you that this is not your eclectic uncle's Volvo. Here's the plus side Cavernous cargo area, plenty of rear seat leg room, dual cup holders in the rear seat, armrest, dual USB ports, front and rear power. Rear hatch opener 70-40 split I'm sorry, 70-30 split rear seat that folds flat with the cargo floor and a head-up display. On the minus side no spare tire, narrow rear door openings and a large center hump that limits backseat occupancy to two. The bottom line is that the Volvo V60 T8 all-wheel drive, polestar engineered station wagon is an amazing wagon on a mission, but it's not for everybody, and that's okay by Volvo. The base manufacturer suggests a retail price for the 2025 Volvo V60 T8, an amazing wagon on a mission, but it's not for everybody, and that's okay by Volvo. The base manufacturer suggests a retail price for the 2025 Volvo V60 T8 all-wheel drive, polestar engineered station wagon. That's a mouthful Starts at $71,250. Destination charges add $1,195. This is a ride that, if you don't drive anything else in 2025, if you love driving, you owe yourself a ride in this vehicle. Trust me, you will enjoy it Because you love driving. This is the car for you.
Ken Chester :Shell calls it a starship and it's unlike any big rig you have ever seen, and for good reason.
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Ken Chester :Do you listen to podcasts? Seems that most people do. Hi, I'm Ken Chester, host of the Tech Mobility Show. If you've missed any of our weekly episodes on the radio, our podcast is a great way to listen. You can find the Tech Mobility podcast just about anywhere. You can enjoy podcasts. Be sure to follow us from Apple Podcasts, iHeart Radio and many platforms in between. We are there. Just enter the Tech Mobility podcast in the search bar. Wherever you listen to podcasts.
Ken Chester :Social media, it's the place to be and we are no exception. Hi, I'm Ken Chester, host of the TechMobility show. Several times a week, I post TikTok several of the topics that I cover on my weekly radio show. It's another way to keep up on mobility, technology news and information. I've built quite a library of short videos for your viewing pleasure, so be sure to watch, like and subscribe. That's the tech mobility show on TikTok. Check it out.
Ken Chester :The Dutch oil company calls it a lab on wheels, while onlookers think that it rolled out of an episode of the Jetsons. Shell calls it the Shell Starship 3.0 NG, and its impact on trucking's future cannot be underestimated. This is Topic B. What is all the hoopla about? First of all, this is a truck that that, just looking at it, it's different. You've never seen a truck that looked like this Aerodynamic, to a fault. To cheat the wind, to get every trick to get the best fuel economy, because why? Truckers burn a lot of diesel fuel and the typical diesel truck gets maybe five to seven miles per gallon of diesel fuel. So, needless to say, if you're an owner operator, even a small fleet operator, the cost of fuel adds up real quick. So anything you can do to reduce that cost, you're all ears and the industry is all about it.
Ken Chester :This is just one of many different initiatives across commercial trucking in the United States that they're looking at. How can we get more efficient with what we've got? And that's on top of? Okay, we want to decarbonize too. That's why they call it the messy middle Trucking companies that are between fossil fuel and diesel, trying to get to whatever decarbonization means. Is it electric, is it natural gas? Is it battery operated, is it a fuel cell? They don't know, because every fleet's going to be different. And here's Shell Oil. This is a fossil fuel based company. In the middle of all this, saying, ah, we see it coming, we want to offer a third alternative.
Ken Chester :So they teamed up with International, they teamed up with Cummings to come up with the bed, or basically the basic truck that became the Starship. Let's talk about this. First of all, what kind of engine is propelling this truck? Cummings developed a new engine called the X-15N natural gas engine. It's an industry-first large-bore natural gas engine that runs on renewable natural gas, if available. Let me go a little further. The Cummings X-15 line is what they call fuel agnostic. Cummins designed an engine that will burn almost anything and doesn't care what it's burning. It will make the adjustment and burn it.
Ken Chester :Shell's point of view is that natural gas particularly if you can burn renewable natural gas, which is basically natural gas made from agricultural waste as good, if not better, economy out of the vehicle and help fleets to decarbonize in a way that's not going to bankrupt them. They don't have to go all in on electric and basically turn their fleets upside down, because this is not just getting used to a new truck, excuse me. Going electric means changing everything Parts, service, supply chain, everything, drivers, everything and it's expensive and the smaller fleets can't afford to do that. So Shell says, hey, we're getting with industry players to come up with ways to help you be more efficient right now while decarbonizing your fleet, but in a way that isn't going to bankrupt, hence the term lab on wheels.
Ken Chester :They run some numbers in, basically something they call a ton mile. Basically, what does it cost to move one ton of freight one mile? How much can I get out of a gallon of fuel. How many miles can I get In 2018, if you were getting almost nine miles to the gallon diesel fuel, that was major Because remember they were five to seven. Today, with improvements in both aerodynamics and engines still fossil fuel they're getting nine, sometimes 10 miles a gallon. When it comes to ton miles, this Starship prototype or lab, if you will was averaging 178.4 ton miles per gallon. That means it could move 178 tons one mile per gallon ton miles and the industry average 72. I mean that's almost like four times four times this third generation Starship, because it was one and two and each time they've moved the bar beat the efficiency of generations prior, with a 2.5 times better freight ton efficiency on the ton miles per gallon, and even better when it came to reducing the amount of carbon dioxide. It's awesome. Now it gets a little worse gas mileage than the previous Starships.
Ken Chester :But what they're saying? Kevin Otto from the electrification team, lead for the North American Council on Freight Efficiency, said the tradeoff is lower emissions from an engine that requires less overall maintenance. Again, you should hear the cash register ringing in the back because you don't have to overhaul it. If the engine goes longer and I don't have to touch it. It means it's in service longer, I can make more money over longer miles and it's more efficient. It's all about efficiency, but Shell didn't stop there. Shell wanted to focus on cleaner emissions and alternative fuels, but it was important that the infrastructure was readily available to support it. In other words, what can we do to support this today? Hydrogen got brief consideration, but natural gas quickly became the obvious choice because it's something the fleets can adopt. Now, hydrogen got brief consideration, but natural gas quickly became the obvious choice because it's something that fleets can adopt.
Ken Chester :Now, saying that, the Starship was born from the idea that it would serve as the test dummy for fleets to see what's possible keyword today with readily available technology. It may look futuristic, but they want to optimize what you can do today. Why? Because anything a fleet does, big or small, gets real expensive real fast. And while it's important that the Starship include technology and solutions available today, this lab all will is used to validate and prove a variety of things, like the effectiveness of lower viscosity oils and lubricants on alternative fuel powertrains. In other words, shell is saying hey, yeah, we sell gasoline, we sell diesel fuel, but guess what? We sell oil and lubricants too, and we're going to use lower viscosity elements to reduce friction and help you be more efficient by rolling easier, because you don't have to worry about viscosity under a wide range of temperatures, because obviously oils and lubricants get real stiff when it gets real cold, making it hard to move, and they get real runny and not very supportive when they get real hot. So these lower viscosity oils and lubricants were also part of the test bed to show what could be possible in helping all this happen. So Shell's all in.
Ken Chester :Shell is all in and it talks about the truck and how spacious it is. It's not a sleeper, it's not an over-the-road sleeper, but there's plenty of room in this thing and plenty of visual space where you can see as a driver. So there's a lot going on. Will they ever build it? Probably not. But again, it wasn't designed to be built. It was designed to prove. Here's what you can do today. Here's what you can do now on an existing platform with an existing engine that's both in production that you can apply to your fleet today. It doesn't have to be electric.
Ken Chester :Electric air taxis are on the verge of being a thing, but can they make it?
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Ken Chester :To learn more about the Tech Mobility Show. Start by visiting our website. Hi, I'm Ken Chester, host of the Tech Mobility Show. The website is a treasure trove of information about me and the show, as well as where to find it on the radio across the country. Keep up with the happenings of the Tech Mobility Show by visiting techmobility. show. That's techmobility. show. You can also drop us a line at talk at techmobility. show. You can also drop us a line at talk at techmobility. show.
Ken Chester :Did you know that Tech Mobility has a YouTube channel? Hi, I'm Ken Chester, host of the Tech Mobility Show. Each week, I upload a few short videos of some of the hot topics that I cover during my weekly radio program. I've designed these videos to be informative and entertaining. It's another way to keep up on current mobility and technology news and information. Be sure to watch, like and subscribe to my channel. That's the Tech Mobility Show on YouTube.
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Ken Chester :Social media is the place to be these days, and we're no exception. I'm Ken Chester of the Tech Mobility Show. If you enjoy my program, then you will also enjoy my weekly Instagram videos, from the latest vehicle reviews to timely commentary on a variety of mobility and technology related topics. These short features are designed to inform and delight you. Be sure to watch, like and follow us on Instagram. You can find us by typing the Tech Mobility Show in the search bar.
Ken Chester :Investors and transportation companies, large and small, are spending big sums to launch what is considered to be, in some circles, the next big thing, and that's electric air taxis. Question is where will the demand come from and at what price Can they actually make a business case for this new technology? This is Topic C. It's always some new big thing, but I've been around long enough. Let me give you the lowdown about how this is probably going to happen. There are companies right now, including automakers and including commercial aircraft makers like Boeing and Airbus, and automakers like Honda, Stellantis and Toyota, that are investing money in this new technology. Here's what usually happens If you look at the internet, if you look at the broadband bubble new technology or even if you want to go back 150 years.
Ken Chester :Railroads, the smart money or the beginning money comes in floats the idea. They get in actually making the thing. Then a bunch of people jump into the business, lowering the revenue to the point where it's not sustainable and folks start going broke. What happens is folks have been waiting on the sidelines, swoop in and pick it up on the cheap. Maybe they consolidate a bunch of stuff and they end up with assets for pennies on the dollar. Those are the folks the second or third round folks who usually make the money. If you don't believe me, find out who built the broadband 20 years ago and who owns it now and you'll find they're not the same people.
Ken Chester :I bet you've never heard of AltaVista or Ask Jeeves. They were before Google. By the way, in case you were wondering, netscape ever hear of them. And here's one you probably never heard of, and I'm just naming technology names VisiCalc. Bet you never heard of them. That was a spreadsheet software before Lotus 1-2-3, for those of y'all may remember that, before Excel. Those are two sets of spreadsheets before Excel.
Ken Chester :Back in the day, technology, auto industry, same way. Bunch of companies bubbled up. Investment got heavy. They went broke. Competitors picked over the remains, bought assets kept rolling, bought assets on the cheap, initial investors took the loss.
Ken Chester :I mean, here's the question. Okay, great, the concept of being able to pick up a plane, a virtual takeoff and landing a VTOL aircraft from your cul-de-sac or a pad on the top of a building to go from the top of your building home. Don't have to fool with traffic. Don't have to fool with buses, not public transportation Don't have to be in traffic jams, nothing, okay, Number one how much is that going to cost you? Number two is it going to be enough of y'all wanting that service to justify anybody offering it? And number three as all these people jump in and drive the price down, you're going to squeeze people out that it's below their cost of operation. That's usually what happens. As it becomes more affordable to folks. Folks with a high cost basis go out of business of folks. Folks with a high cost basis go out of business.
Ken Chester :There is a reason why the companies mentioned in this piece are launching this where they're launching it in Dubai. They're launching it in let's see where else real rich country. That did not surprise me. Let's see. Yeah, Dubai is one of them, in Abu Dhabi, where their money is. It's where they're launching it first. Gee surprise, where people who have the disposable income would be willing to pay for that luxury of additional time, which means you know, the cost per ride is going to be astronomical, at least in the early days.
Ken Chester :So the question is and Toyota just put $500 million in Joby Aviation, which is developing one, Stellantis is putting money in companies like Archer Aviation everybody's going towards getting FAA certification. Okay, you get the certification, you do the test flight, you get this all down pat. We've talked about this before. Let me take you back seven years. Uber had a white paper of this very thing in 2017, 2018. We talked about it. They were going to launch in Miami, Dallas, San Francisco. Did that happen?
Ken Chester :No, even if these folks get all of this straight, they still got to deal with the FAA and, believe it or not, NASA, which kind of blew my mind. I said NASA, they're not going that high. But as far as jurisdictions are concerned, yeah, the FAA and NASA still have to come up with rules on how these are even going to operate, because they're not going airport to airport. They may go from office building to a delivery pad, maybe somewhere near your house, or heck, they'll put down in your cul-de-sac if the FAA will allow that, how does that traffic impact commercial aircraft today? I mean, it's just a whole bunch of questions that they have not answered since the days of Uber Aviation and that white paper, that 100-page white paper we talked about in the early days of this show when we launched and they put it out. Sounded great then, but honestly, we're still looking at the same problems that even this article don't deal with, and that is regulation of the skies relative to low altitude flight, where these things will be operating. And then what does it mean near a busy airport? Are they prohibited from that space? And what does that mean for them flying from maybe a downtown situation, like maybe lower Manhattan, to out in the suburbs where you got across? If you're going out to Long Island, you got across the airspace of JFK and LaGuardia. How does that work? Big questions, and this doesn't even deal with this. This is just dealing with the technology. All I'm saying is is for the millions and billions of dollars that they're chasing and some of them may survive A lot of the initial investors won't Give you another example.
Ken Chester :Have you ever heard the term IBM compatible? That is what we call personal computers for many years. Although IBM only marketed a computer itself for a few years, it didn't market a personal computer for many years. Yet we call them IBM compatible computers as opposed to Apple. They didn't survive and in the end, when they did come out with laptops, they ended up selling them to Lenovo, a Chinese company. IBM's not even in that business anymore.
Ken Chester :So with all this money and they said, even if they get this together, folks in the industry says it will still take billions, with a B more in startup money, to build out a network of takeoff and landing areas called Verde ports and charging stations, because these are electric and they're trying to make them autonomous. Until they get the regulation straight, none of this matters because the FAA and NASA have the final words and right now they don't have that protocol in place for these to even operate. So until that happens, it could be six months, it could be six years, it could be 10 years. And will these companies have the wherewithal and the faith to stick it out until that gets solved? Big questions. But yeah, we're still waiting on George Jetson and the fly from the home and to have my little flying car Not happening yet, not happening yet Getting closer, but we're not there yet and it's gonna be more regulation than equipment.
Ken Chester :Regulation and equipment and demand, because this is expensive and you need enough numbers and nobody's crunching numbers to see what it would cost and what break even even looks like to do all this. So you don't know what a ride's going to cost and how far, and all of that kind of stuff, all the mundane stuff that you know it's called a business case. So we'll see.
Ken Chester :We've come to the end of our visit. Be sure to join me again right here next time. This has been the Tech Mobility Show.
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